OTB it seemed close to me, but being up only 12 pts I felt it slightly best to block him so I slid from the 11 to 10 pt.
Then a pink elephant must have flown by, since I decided to prefer 3/2(2) over 8/6 and missed the obvious 3/1 ! Usually I am on the lookout for play like 3/1 but here I never considered it. (Note to self, play 11 and 22 extremely slowly)
Anyhow, the slight loss in equity between 3/2(2) and 3/1 didn't hurt me since I rolled 66 next and was hit and dead.

              
    
              
 | is STEAMSAX
score: 12 pip: 111 | 13 point match Crawford | pip: 103 score: 10
is neilkaz | |
| XGID=---BbCC-CB-Ba---aa-bbbac--:0:0:1:11:10:12:1:13:10 |
to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/10(2) 3/1 | eq: +0.425 |
| Player: Opponent: | 71.18% (G:2.30% B:0.06%) 28.82% (G:1.54% B:0.03%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.422...+0.428) Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/10(2) 3/2(2) | eq: +0.414 (-0.012) |
| Player: Opponent: | 70.60% (G:2.22% B:0.05%) 29.40% (G:1.59% B:0.03%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.411...+0.417) Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/10(2) 8/6 | eq: +0.414 (-0.012) |
| Player: Opponent: | 70.61% (G:2.23% B:0.05%) 29.39% (G:1.53% B:0.03%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.411...+0.417) Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/9(2) | eq: +0.408 (-0.017) |
| Player: Opponent: | 70.34% (G:1.92% B:0.05%) 29.66% (G:0.96% B:0.02%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.406...+0.410) Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 9/7(2) | eq: +0.399 (-0.026) |
| Player: Opponent: | 69.84% (G:2.23% B:0.14%) 30.16% (G:0.99% B:0.02%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.397...+0.401) Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 8/7(3) 3/2 | eq: +0.394 (-0.031) |
| Player: Opponent: | 69.53% (G:2.62% B:0.16%) 30.47% (G:1.65% B:0.04%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.391...+0.397) Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 8/7(2) 8/6 | eq: +0.392 (-0.033) |
| Player: Opponent: | 69.50% (G:2.07% B:0.07%) 30.50% (G:1.23% B:0.03%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.390...+0.394) Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: GnuBG 11 point