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A Double One To Play

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 6:33 p.m.

In Response To: A Double One To Play (Neil Robins)

Nice problem, Neil.

For money, I wouldn't dream of hitting here (unless I were protected by Jacoby). But at this -3-2 (cube on 2) score, hitting might be right. Yellow's gammon losses are irrelevant; she pays only a single loss when she gets hit back.

For a moment, let's pretend it's DMP, the alternative being 13/11(2). If Yellow hits, how do Brown's 26/36 misses play? 64 is Brown's best, 62 and 61 (breaking the anchor) are his worst, he'll have a third checker on the anchor with 10 numbers, and the other 10 he won't. On the average of those numbers, does Yellow gain 10/26 of the winning chances that evaporate when she gets his on the other 10 numbers?

Looks very close to me (at DMP). Given that, I like hitting at the actual score because of the extra gammons Yellow will occasionally win.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• A Double One To Play
  Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 17 February 2010, at 5:27 p.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 17 February 2010, at 9:42 p.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    Martin -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 5:44 p.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 6:28 p.m.
    • Edit:
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 6:28 p.m.
  • A Double One To Play
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 27 February 2010, at 1:12 a.m.