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That's not the only thing Stick says

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 10:41 p.m.

In Response To: That's not the only thing Stick says (Chuck Bower)

Was never a fan of seeing a problem and the rollout results and not knowing how many games it was rolled out, how much variance was left, what the rollout settings were. I have many staples I live by when playing bg. One, as Phil notes here, is that most normal looking prime v. primes are takes. This isn't the reason this specific prime v. prime is a take, the score is. This prime v. prime for money risks to be blitz/prime v. hoping to be able to prime. Too many gammon losses to take this for money.

Another of my top ten is you just don't cube when you're -3 and the other person is -6 or more and there's significant contact left. If you ever do miraculously find the window the cube is likely to be only a .02 or less error not to cube. This is one of the bigger cubes I've seen at this score and it would cost you roughly .045. A little too big of an error but still, in general it will save you far more than it will cost you by applying the rule. In a lot of situations you will try to cube where you're leading -3 -X where X => 6 and BOOM...blunderville. BAM...whopperjunction.

Not that I won't cube and cube often at -3 -X scores because like Phil's example, a lot of these position are dead money drops and you will get a lot of drops from them. The position has to be scary though, I'm not handing my opponent anything he can easily snatch up.

	is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 135 9 point match pip: 114 score: 6 is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBCBA---cBa--bbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:6:3:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70.65% (G: 41.70% B: 1.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.35% (G: 6.04% B: 0.48%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.66% (G: 42.38% B: 3.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.34% (G: 6.21% B: 0.81%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.857
Double:	+1.363
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.784 (-0.046)
Double/Take:	+0.830
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.170)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.010 (+0.775...+0.794)
Confidence Double:	± 0.016 (+0.814...+0.846)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes

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