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BGonline.org Forums
Understanding the Bots
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Understanding the Bots (Phil Simborg)
Date: Tuesday, 2 March 2010, at 8:38 p.m.
It could be helpful to understand the various reasons why humans tend to get plays wrong in the first place, as there may not be a one size fits all "degree of difficulty". A few things that come to mind:
1. The position is simply not well understood
2. There are numerous reasonable choices.
3. There are competing concepts at play and it is unclear how to weigh them.
4. The answer is purely technical. Nothing short of a somewhat thorough lookahead at upcoming rolls will reveal the source of the equity difference between plays.
5. The position itself is well understood, just not the affect of score and cube level on the decision.
6. The right play is unconventional and therefore not easy to spot in the first place.
7. The position tends to repeat for several turns and a player will essentially be charged many times for the same mistake.
As for bot analysis, I would think that if a bot could take millions of games played and develop an estimate of the equity of a given position, it could also be programmed to take thousands of analyzed matches and learn to predict a probability that a given player or population of players will choose a given move in any new position based on similarities to positions already seen and the plays observed in those positions. That would produce an expected error probability and expected error magnitude on each play. Perhaps these expected error metrics can be used to gauge the degree of difficulty on a play.
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