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DENMARK VS THE WORLD (Falafel cashes 65%???)

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Thursday, 4 March 2010, at 6:20 p.m.

In Response To: DENMARK VS THE WORLD (Iancho Hristov)

"Falafel cashed in about 65% of the tournaments he played over the last 3 years and he rarely misses any events."

I don't think it's possible for any player, or even for a bot, to cash 65% of the time. Here's my proof:

Let's say that Falafel wins 60% of his matches and plays in 64 player tournaments. He'll make the quarterfinals, and cash, 12.96% of the time by winning his first four matches. The 87.04% of the time he goes into the progressive consolation, he'll have to win (on average) four straight matches to cash (12.96% x 87.04% = 11.28% more cashes). If he hasn't cashed yet (75.76% of the time) he'll have to win at least five straight matches (7.78%) to win the last chance = 5.89% more cashes (and I gave him one bye in the LC). Adding up the cashes, it comes to slightly more than 30%.

In order for Falafel to cash 65% of the time he would have to win roughly 3/4 of his matches, and I don't think anybody is capable of winning anywhere near 75% of the time in the open/championship division.

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