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Rollout: Hit or consolidate?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 7:38 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or consolidate? (Timothy Chow)

Seems there's less interest in this problem than in the other two problems I posted recently...not sure why. According to the rollout, either of the consolidating plays is better than the hit. This is consistent with Magriel's safe-versus-bold criteria, and perhaps one need not inquire further. However, as an example, if we pull Blue's mid-point blot down to a spare on the bar point, then GNU 2-ply prefers to hit. So I think I'm missing something here, and would be interested in attempts at explaining what is going on in this position.

gnubg	157
tchow	151
Position ID: Mm/gACzg2ykBUA Match ID: QYkMAJAAAAAA

• tchow moves bar/22 11/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/22 11/10	-0.099
			0.542 0.158 0.010 - 0.458 0.157 0.007 +0.088 -0.099 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 849595500 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/24 13/10	-0.108 ( -0.009)
			0.530 0.169 0.010 - 0.470 0.150 0.007 +0.082 -0.108 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 849595500 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/22 24/23*	-0.154 ( -0.055)
			0.517 0.172 0.011 - 0.483 0.161 0.012 +0.044 -0.154 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 849595500 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or consolidate?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 6 March 2010, at 3:05 a.m.
  • Hit or consolidate?
    Chase -- Saturday, 6 March 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
  • Hit or consolidate?
    Martin -- Saturday, 6 March 2010, at 1:46 p.m.
  • Hit or consolidate?
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 6 March 2010, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Rollout: Hit or consolidate?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 7:38 p.m.
    • Rollout: Hit or consolidate?
      Chase -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 9:37 p.m.
      • Rollout: Hit or consolidate?
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 1:00 a.m.
        • Rollout: Hit or consolidate?
          Chase -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 5:26 a.m.
    • Rollout: Hit or consolidate?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 1:46 a.m.