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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout. I'm not yet convinced this is an easy problem
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Rollout. I'm not yet convinced this is an easy problem (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
There's no need to distinguish between the two positions while they are vastly different this sort of play remains standard and the same. I'm sure if you push hard enough you can find one example where it's wrong but that'll be the needle in the haystack. Looking at the differences can be interesting on its own because from one example to the next Play A will be better than Play B by differing amounts, as we have here. In one position it's a blunder, in the next, small error. 4 ply is a donkey.
You've greatly changed the race and affected the position in your two examples. I'd start there if I was trying to look into this deeper. The greater the racing lead the less need the person playing the 51 will need to attack the remaining blot in the future. They'll be playing safe to win rather than bold to win. Also, changing the outer points you hold can alter your immediate upcoming rolls a lot sometimes. One position everything may be duplicated while the next you may have diversified.
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 98Money session
Jacoby Beaverpip: 78
score: 0
is Player 1
XGID=-CAABaBBBaB------abbbbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 to play 51
1. Rollout1 7/6 7/2 eq: +0.514
Player:
Opponent:77.30% (G:2.57% B:0.02%)
22.70% (G:1.36% B:0.06%)Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.509...+0.519)
Duration: 4 minutes 16 seconds2. Rollout1 8/7 8/3 eq: +0.506 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:77.57% (G:1.42% B:0.01%)
22.43% (G:1.03% B:0.04%)Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.501...+0.511)
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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