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Rollout: Hit or consolidate?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 8 March 2010, at 1:00 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Hit or consolidate? (Chase)

Chase wrote:

I think this is just about the quality of hits. White hits about as often whether the blot is on the midpoint or if it's safe on the bar point, but the hits are far from equal. Take a look at rolls like 31 and 41 where White is hitting loose instead of sending another checker back. 51 is even worse, with White giving up his bar point with 7/2*.

Sorry, I'm having some trouble following your train of thought here. When you say "White hits about as often," what two positions are you comparing? The original position after Blue plays ...? versus the modified position after Blue plays ...?

BTW, the first time I looked at this position, I miscounted shots after Blue hits. White actually hits about half the time. Cutting the blot count from 5 down to 1 makes a lot of sense in this light.

If Blue hits with bar/22 24/23* then 20 of White's 36 rolls hit. If Blue plays bar/22 11/10 then 19 of White's 36 rolls hit. But you're right that the quality of the shots matters—not all those 19 hits are "good" hits.

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