BGonline.org Forums

Rollout: Gotta leave a double shot...but which one?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 11 March 2010, at 10:04 p.m.

In Response To: Gotta leave a double shot...but which one? (Timothy Chow)

The rollout strongly confirms GNU 2-ply's choice of 22/16 9/4*. Every play has a pretty nasty downside, and this play has the best upside.

I also rolled out 22/11 and 9/4* 7/1* (not displayed below) but they weren't close. I didn't roll out joe freedman's suggestion of 20/9 but again it doesn't look close. Despite the 5-prime that results, abandoning the advanced anchor is just too dangerous given Blue's potentially gammonish attack.

gnubg	130
tchow	143
Position ID: mNuDASKWbQuACQ Match ID: EQEXACAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	22/16 9/4*	+0.128
			0.582 0.239 0.006 - 0.418 0.107 0.004 +0.299 +0.128 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 850823395 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	22/16 8/3	+0.066 ( -0.062)
			0.567 0.199 0.006 - 0.433 0.092 0.004 +0.242 +0.066 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 850823395 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/3 7/1*	+0.004 ( -0.124)
			0.531 0.297 0.003 - 0.469 0.145 0.008 +0.209 +0.004 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 850823395 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Gotta leave a double shot...but which one?
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 March 2010, at 2:46 a.m.
  • Gotta leave a double shot...but which one?
    Chase -- Wednesday, 10 March 2010, at 3:02 a.m.
  • Gotta leave a double shot...but which one?
    joe freedman -- Wednesday, 10 March 2010, at 8:17 p.m.
  • Rollout: Gotta leave a double shot...but which one?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 March 2010, at 10:04 p.m.