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Hit or not ?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 17 March 2010, at 3:45 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or not ? (Timothy Chow)

Hitting allows White to win the game, and quite possibly a gammon, on a single roll. If this was going to be Blue's last opportunity to hit, or if hitting assured Blue the win, it would likely be worth it. Here, Blue isn't gin if he gets away with the hit, and he's got good chances of getting more shots as White tries to run home. I think Blue does better to wait for another chance, and I'd do it with 13/8. Any other play gives White too many shots. Those shot have the same game-ending-gammon-losing consequences as when Blue gets hit back after hitting loose, but without the comparable upside Blue gets from hitting loose and being missed. 13/8 brings another builder into the zone, giving Blue the option of attacking next turn, and it stays safe in the outfield while maintaining reasonable coverage.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not ?
  storm -- Wednesday, 17 March 2010, at 10:23 a.m.
  • Hit or not ?
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 17 March 2010, at 2:55 p.m.
    • Hit or not ?
      Chase -- Wednesday, 17 March 2010, at 3:45 p.m.
      • Hit or not ?
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 17 March 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
  • Rollout?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 22 March 2010, at 3:48 a.m.
  • Hit or not ? - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 9:22 p.m.
    • Hit or not ? - RO
      storm -- Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 10:52 p.m.
      • Hit or not ? - RO
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 1:37 a.m.