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The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 4:20 p.m.

In Response To: The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer (rory)

rory asked:

What are your win & gammon estimates for white?

I was hoping you wouldn't ask that! It's been only a couple of months since I've started studying match play, and although I understand the mathematical principles just fine, I have been taking the approach of developing my intuition through examples rather than through explicit calculation. Ultimately, of course, I realize if I want complete mastery then I'll need to bite the bullet and learn to estimate wins, gammons, and recubes explicitly. Initially, though, I have found that it's been more effective for me to leverage off my money-play intuition, and adjust intuitively according to whether the gammon price and take point and recube vig are higher or lower than they are for money. If I'm off, then I play around with the position until I get a feeling for what my mistake was (e.g., did I underestimate how much that blot affected gammon chances?), but without trying to memorize any specific numbers.

Except for certain technical situations like pure races and bear-offs, where exact (or nearly exact) calculation is possible, I figure that this intuitive approach is going to be necessary for many positions anyway, so that's what I'm focusing on first.

Messages In This Thread

• 6-away, 3-away cube action?
  rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:17 a.m.
  • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
    rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:24 a.m.
    • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
      Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 10:14 a.m.
    • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
      • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
        rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
        • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
          • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
            Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 6:12 p.m.
            • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
              Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 6:36 p.m.
        • Calling John O'Hagen!!!
          rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:36 p.m.