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The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 6:36 p.m.

In Response To: The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer (Chase)

I forgot to bring this back to the original position. How many gammons does White win? I can see him winning 1 gammon in 5 tries, but probably not 2. So it's higher than 20%. Can I see him winning 1 gammon in 4 tries? Hmm, looks close. So I think White wins between between 20 and 25% gammons, probably closer to 25. I'm a little worried about his stripped structure, so I'll go with 23%.

How many gammons does Black win? More than from the opening position? Hmm, maybe not, since he's losing a lot of the time to begin with as the underdog. I can see him winning 1 gammon in 10 games, but not much more than that. I'll go with 10%.

Now I'm bad with ME calculations and so I'll be lazy and just use money values. So I get 23/2 - 10/2 = 6.5%. Adding that to an initial take point of 22% (with recube vig) and I get a take point of ~29%. Now I know Black's gammons aren't worth as much as for money and he doesn't have as much recube vig, so I'd add a few percent and maybe give him a take point of 33%. Can Black win 33% from here? I'd guess he wins closer to 40%, so it looks like an easy take.

My numbers could be way off, and maybe I'll embarrass myself with all of this, but I feel with the process in place I can only get better as my estimates improve.

Messages In This Thread

• 6-away, 3-away cube action?
  rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:17 a.m.
  • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
    rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:24 a.m.
    • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
      Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 10:14 a.m.
    • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
      • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
        rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
        • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
          • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
            Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 6:12 p.m.
            • The view I posted may be confusing...this should be clearer
              Chase -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 6:36 p.m.
        • Calling John O'Hagen!!!
          rory -- Thursday, 18 March 2010, at 9:36 p.m.