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BGonline.org Forums
Something's got to give
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Something's got to give (storm)
Date: Friday, 19 March 2010, at 3:22 p.m.
storm wrote:
Wrt. white's 5-1 and 3-1, I would think the advantage of having played 18/12 rather than 18/13 18/17, is avoiding the hit and cover of one of the blots rather than white increasing wastage in the race ?
What I meant is that if you look at the full set of rolls in both cases, it breaks down something like this:
Doublets: 6 of these, of course; they range from good to excellent for White in either case.
Non-doublet hit-and-(partial)-covers: 14 of these in either case. It's a different set of 14, of course. So 5-1 and 3-1 are hit-and-(partial)-covers in one case but not the other, but there are other rolls that are hit-and-(partial)-covers in the other case but not the one (e.g., 4-2). Since there are 14 in both cases I figure the net effect is roughly a wash.
Forced to leave a shot: 6-1 in both cases.
Now the interesting part. After 18/12, there are 4 rolls (5-1 and 3-1) that force White to shuffle around in the home board and waste pips. There is nothing comparable after 18/17 18/13; other than 6-1, everything is decent, allowing White to at least clear an outside point.
If you have GNU, the "temperature map" feature lets you see all this at a glance. After 18/12, White's temperature map has 6 cold white boxes while after 18/17 18/13, it has only 2 cold white boxes.
Admittedly, a more careful analysis would not only group the rolls into classes but would mathematically compare the equities in each case. I have not done this, so maybe the above analysis is not quite right, but my guess is that it's not too far off the truth.
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