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Match Equity Table or Match Probability Table?

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 19 March 2010, at 4:11 p.m.

In Response To: Rockwell Kazaross MET (Phil Simborg)

Thanks a lot to David Rockwell and Neil Kazaross for the hard work involved in constructing the very useful tables.

Their “Match Equity Table,” however, is misnamed. This table does not give match equities; it gives match probabilities.

According to their table, at 5-away/5-away, the match equity is 50%. Actually, the match equity at 5-away/5-away is 0 while the match-winning probability at that score is 50%.

At the beginning of a backgammon game (assuming players of equal skill), each player’s probability is 50% and each player’s equity is 0.

Similarly, at the beginning of a 5pt match, each player’s probability is 50% and each player’s equity is 0.

This “Match Equity Table” should be renamed. It should be called a “Match Probability Table.”

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