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UBK vs. Gus Cube

Posted By: Chase
Date: Saturday, 20 March 2010, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: UBK vs. Gus Cube (jdg)

I think this is a pass. White is behind 20% in the race, giving him about 15% racing equity. Black leaves an indirect shot on about a third of his rolls, and White will hit about a sixth of those for a total of 5%. White's racing equity is slightly higher since Black has a bit more wastage, but a hit isn't gin for White. Those things tend to offset but are a net gain for Black, so I'm giving White under 20% chances on what happens in the next exchange. White will sometimes get more shots next turn, so he does slightly better than that. At -5/2 White needs about 23% to take, and I don't think "slightly better" quite gets him there.

Messages In This Thread

• UBK vs. Gus Cube
  jdg -- Saturday, 20 March 2010, at 4:12 p.m.
  • UBK vs. Gus Cube
    Chase -- Saturday, 20 March 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
  • UBK vs. Gus Cube TCTC
    svilo -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 8:59 a.m.
    • UBK vs. Gus Cube TCTC
      Chase -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 12:25 p.m.
      • UBK vs. Gus Cube TCTC
        svilo -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 7:56 p.m.
    • UBK vs. Gus Cube TCTC
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 4:40 p.m.
      • UBK vs. Gus Cube TCTC
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
  • UBK vs. Gus Cube
    jdg -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 1:37 p.m.
    • UBK vs. Gus Cube
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 21 March 2010, at 5:30 p.m.
      • UBK vs. Gus Cube
        jdg -- Monday, 22 March 2010, at 1:22 p.m.