[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Match Equity Table or Match Probability Table?

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Saturday, 20 March 2010, at 10:10 p.m.

In Response To: Match Equity Table or Match Probability Table? (Rich Munitz)

I actually enjoy being the butt of a joke...it's allows me to not feel too bad when I get even (I always do!).

But in this case, since we're on the joke, it is a most interesting questions that Rich raised. Assuming I enter the Open Division for $200, and assuming there are 64 players, and, just for the sake of argument, let's assume that I am not one of the 16 seeded players, and let's say that I am in the next 16....for the sake of argument, let's assume I am the 32nd best player in the tournament. Clearly the 32nd best player does not have an "average" chance to win, as the odds of winning are greatly skewed toward the top 16 players.

I think it would take a lot of guesswork and math to come to a reasonable estimate of my equity when I enter, but my guess is that I probably have lost pretty close to half my equity the second I enter the event. Surely, the best player is worth more than $200 (assuming a 100 percent return and no vig), as are all of the top 16, and then the other 15 ahead of my are probably worth something less than $200, and by the time you get down to me and the rest of the field, the equity drops off dramatically. Parimutuel betting illustrates this affect very dramatically.

So while Rich might have been jesting, he might also have been extremely accurate in his estimate.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.