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The 32 backgame seems to have worked

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 22 March 2010, at 1:52 a.m.

In Response To: The 32 backgame seems to have worked (neilkaz)

In order to double before actually hitting, several favorable conditions need to exist. The kinds of "favorable conditions" I mean include:

1. Being able to win a gammon.

2. Continued chances to get a shot later even if the current shot is missed.

3. A five-prime already made.

4. No danger of crunching.

Here, a gammon is obviously possible. Continued chances to get a shot are also possible, and I think quite good because of Black's two gaps. The five-prime is not quite made, but it's close. The danger of crunching is not negligible, though. White will have mixed emotions if he rolls something like 1-4 or 2-4. A couple more 4's and White may actually be in trouble. Or, if White misses, another shot may materialize, but not before White starts to crunch. Black's three-prime may not seem like much, but it prevents White from recirculating checkers as freely as he would like.

Overall there are enough positives that I believe this is a double. And I think there are enough ways for things to go wrong for White that Black can take.

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