BGonline.org Forums

Rollout: 3-2 from the bar

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 26 March 2010, at 9:54 p.m.

In Response To: 3-2 from the bar (Timothy Chow)

I think Chuck and Chase have analyzed the situation correctly. OTB, I thought that sending another checker back would be a good thing. This might be true if White were guaranteed to come in right away, but in this priming battle, I want White to play his large numbers by moving forward and hopefully cracking his own prime. I think it's also important that my rearmost blot is somewhat vulnerable.

In order to test this theory I rolled out the position with two other dice values: 2-1 and 1-1. As expected, with 2-1, GNU plays bar/22 without hitting. The 1-1 roll is more interesting. GNU definitely wants to play 8/7(2); despite giving White 6's to escape, it seems to produce a better prime. Given that we're playing 8/7(2) with two of the 2's, GNU prefers to hit. I think this is because the blot on the 24-point is a liability and it is important not to let it get attacked.

gnubg	121
tchow	185
Position ID: stsOABjYZjCARw Match ID: UYkJADAAGAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/22 13/11	-0.184
			0.411 0.100 0.004 - 0.589 0.293 0.011 -0.378 -0.184 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847524970 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/23* 13/10	-0.332 ( -0.148)
			0.365 0.101 0.006 - 0.635 0.302 0.018 -0.483 -0.332 0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.008 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847524970 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

gnubg	121
tchow	185
Position ID: stsOABjYZjCARw Match ID: UYkIADAAGAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/22	-0.082
			0.441 0.105 0.004 - 0.559 0.267 0.009 -0.287 -0.082 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847875154 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/23*/22	-0.212 ( -0.131)
			0.391 0.105 0.004 - 0.609 0.260 0.010 -0.377 -0.212 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847875154 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

gnubg	121
tchow	185
Position ID: stsOABjYZjCARw Match ID: UYkEADAAGAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/23* 8/7(2)	-0.094
			0.431 0.131 0.007 - 0.569 0.259 0.014 -0.272 -0.094 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.007 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847325293 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/24 13/12 8/7(2)	-0.143 ( -0.050)
			0.436 0.115 0.004 - 0.564 0.314 0.018 -0.340 -0.143 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847325293 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/23*/22 13/12	-0.226 ( -0.133)
			0.390 0.104 0.004 - 0.610 0.265 0.011 -0.390 -0.226 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.006 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847325293 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	4	bar/24 13/11 13/12	-0.286 ( -0.192)
			0.414 0.110 0.003 - 0.586 0.342 0.027
	5	4	bar/24 13/10	-0.325 ( -0.231)
			0.403 0.107 0.003 - 0.597 0.351 0.028

Messages In This Thread

• 3-2 from the bar
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 25 March 2010, at 4:20 a.m.
  • 3-2 from the bar
    Chase -- Thursday, 25 March 2010, at 9:45 a.m.
  • 3-2 from the bar
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 25 March 2010, at 4:21 p.m.
  • Rollout: 3-2 from the bar
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 26 March 2010, at 9:54 p.m.