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XG rollout

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 11:23 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz position (joe freedman)

Joe said: "It is, in fact, ND/T, according to a 150 game rollout."

I'd say 150 games is not enough for this position.

Here's a longer XG rollout.

	is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 127 7 point match pip: 155 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-DC----aD---cad-ab-aB:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65,87% (G: 45,27% B: 1,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,13% (G: 9,63% B: 1,04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,69% (G: 46,31% B: 1,63%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,31% (G: 10,20% B: 1,31%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,989
Double:	+1,580
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,818 (-0,033)
Double/Take:	+0,852
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,148)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,013 (+0,805...+0,832)
Confidence Double:	± 0,022 (+0,829...+0,874)
Double Decision confidence:	99,4%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Blitz position
  joe freedman -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 6:48 p.m.
  • Blitz position
    Chase -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 7:30 p.m.
  • Blitz position
    Sam Pottle -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
  • Blitz position
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Blitz position
      joe freedman -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 11:04 a.m.
      • Blitz position
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 2:11 p.m.
  • Blitz position
    misja -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 7:50 a.m.
  • XG rollout
    Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 11:23 a.m.