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-3, -5 initial cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 12:58 a.m.

In Response To: -3, -5 initial cube (christian munk-christensen)

Does White have a take? Trailer's basic 2-cube takepoint ATS is approx 29%, 2-cube gammon prices favor the trailer by around 73%/47%, and the leader's 4-cube takepoint is 1/3. I'd give Blue/White around 10%/7% gammons here which raises White's 2-cube takepoint by around 1 percent. Cube vig is huge for the trailer ATS since the leader's 4-cube cubless takepoint is so high. Assuming 70% efficiency, the cube should be worth about 7% whioh means White needs around 23% cubeless chances to take this.

I think White's chances are > 23% in this position, so I'd take it. Should Blue send it over? He's down a lot in the race and that spare on the 3 is a little too deep. OTOH, 5s are mostly big mkt losers. Not at all sure but I think doubling is correct.

D/T.

Messages In This Thread

• -3, -5 initial cube
  christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 9:02 p.m.
  • -3, -5 initial cube
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
  • -3, -5 initial cube
    garyo -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 5:31 a.m.
  • -3, -5 initial cube
    Chase -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 6:57 a.m.