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61 against a holding game

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 10:58 p.m.

In Response To: 61 against a holding game (Ian Shaw)

13/12x-6 or 13/12x 8/2 or 13/7 8/7 or 8/1. Continuing to the 6-pt looks to be the better hitting play while making the bar looks better than covering the ace. If you hit and White rolls an ace, it's really bad for you. Your chances go down to around 10% and with 27 outside pips and 9 crossovers, you'll be a favorite to get g'd if you never move again. You rate to come in before getting closed out so let's say 4 of your 9.9 losses are gammons. The leader's 2-cube gammon price ATS is around 59% so your expected loss in these 11 games is ~ -13.6 points. Can you make up this huge loss on the 25 non-hitters?

To answer this question, we first need to estimate our chances if we make the bar. The pip count will then be dead even but we'll own the cube and the oppt's 4-cube takepoint will be higher than normal and he will seldom be able to redouble to 8. Cube ownership normally adds around 1/6 to our cubeless chances but because of the oppt's higher than normal takepoint and the relative deadness if he does take, I would add 20% to our chances. So our 50% cubeless chances become 60% cubeful. That's + 7.2 points in 36 games.

For hitting to be correct, we'd therefore have to be +20.8 points in the 25 games where he doesn't roll an ace. There's no way we're a 23-2 cubeless favorite in these games but we do own the cube so that could make a difference. The leader's 4-cube takepoint ATS is around 26% plus approx 80% of our gammons. We don't win many gammons here but we win some when he dances or maybe enters with D3 or 34. Our recube after one of his nine dances looks real efficient to me so let's say we win all 9 of those games. The other 16 games, we are on roll with around a 100-107 lead in the race and him holding our 20-point. I'd guess that makes us around a 65/35 cubeless favorite plus the 20% cube vig translates to around a 78/22 cubeful favorite. Altogether then we'll be +9 in the 9 games where he dances plus almost +9 in his 16 entering games for a total of +18.

So making the bar wins with +7.2/36 vs. + 4.4/36 for the hit.

Messages In This Thread

• 61 against a holding game
  Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 4:48 p.m.
  • 61 against a holding game
    Chase -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 5:00 p.m.
  • 61 against a holding game
    David -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 6:36 p.m.
    • 61 against a holding game
      Seth -- Thursday, 1 April 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
  • 61 against a holding game
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 10:58 p.m.
  • 61 against a holding game
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 11:15 p.m.
  • 61 against a holding game
    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 1 April 2010, at 1:55 p.m.
    • 61 against a holding game
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 1 April 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
      • 61 against a holding game
        Ian Shaw -- Friday, 2 April 2010, at 9:36 p.m.
    • 61 against a holding game - RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 2 April 2010, at 5:35 p.m.