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61 against a holding game

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 1 April 2010, at 1:55 p.m.

In Response To: 61 against a holding game (Ian Shaw)

I've got a rollout cooking, but in the meantime here is my analysis.

13/7 8/7 or 13/12*/7 looked like the standout plays to me, so I concentrated on them.

If I hit, White hits back on 11 rolls, and when that happens I probably only win 1 out of those 11. White dances on 9 rolls. I think I then have a pretty good cube, so I score that as equivalent to nine wins. Therefore, I break even on the twenty rolls where White hits or dances.

The other 16 rolls become a five-point holding game, as do all 36 rolls when I make the bar.

The made bar point gives Blue extra landing spots, and is a concrete advantage. High-anchor holding games are fairly insensitive to the pip lead, so the pips gained from the hit will only count for a little. Any pips advantage will have to be better by 36/16 times the bar-point advantage to offset the number of games I am considering for each scenario. I don't think this is the case so it looks like making the bar is the best play.

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