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61 against a holding game

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 1 April 2010, at 5:36 p.m.

In Response To: 61 against a holding game (Ian Shaw)

Therefore, I break even on the twenty rolls where White hits or dances.

I've plugged in some numbers from Gnubg rollouts of (a) 13/12*6 ... fan .. double, and (b) 13/12*/6 ... hit. For money -- no EMG complications ;-

After hit/fan/double, Blue has a cube at the score, but not in a money game. Blue wins two-thirds of the games. Assuming a redoubled 4-cube and no gammons (both sides win about 6% gammons), Blue net win is (6-3)*4 = 12 points in these 9 games.

For 13/12*/6 ... hit, I rolled out a hit with 3-1. The rollout suggests Blue actually wins about 27% -- about 3 games in 11, but loses 36% gammons -- about 4 games. Assuming a 2-cube, Blue's net loss is (3*2) - (4*2) - (4*2*2) = 18 points in these 11 games.

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