Why is X better than H after 43S-61, but H is better than X after 54S-63?
I have no explanation for this. thx . neilkaz .
H is better than X for both 54S-63 and 54S-61. I'll use the latter position for this analysis so that the number of checkers on the 8pt and 6pt are the same.
We'll be looking at opening 43S and 54S, with replies of 61X and 61H. The four resulting positions are shown below, with discussion.
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Another factor is that 7 numbers (31 51 21 11) allow White to unstack a fourth checker off her 8pt in the upper right (not so in the upper left). Of these, 31 is an extra-large swing because White has a decent use for her 31 (i.e., Bar/24 13/10) in the lower left-hand diagram she does not have in the lower right.
I believe the only roll that substantially swings the other way is White's 53, which hits twice in the upper left versus only once in the upper right.
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For reference, here are bot-averaged values for the three positions, with plays other than H or X omitted:
43S-61 [X H16]
54S-61 [H X28]
54S-63 [H X11]
(Re-including other competitive plays, values are: 43S-61 [X P10 H16], 54S-61 [P H34 X62], and 54S-63 [H X11 R14].)
Hope that helps.
Nack