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Something I learned about backgames at 3-away/3-away

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 4 April 2010, at 6:17 a.m.

In Response To: Something I learned about backgames at 3-away/3-away (Timothy Chow)

I think that's a pretty good analysis. With regards to the two 1-3 backgames, in the bottom one there is no immediate threat to clear the six point and having more checkers on the six point than the five point is dangerous when both 5s and 3s have to be played from the five point.

I think you have rather underestimated how much the score can affect things even after a very late hit and close out. At -3,-3 this is a borderline recube, whereas for money you may very well get an 8 cube back.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 50
3 point match
pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=bBBCBBB-------------------:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 71.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.66% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.432
Redouble:+0.822
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.822 (0.000)
Redouble/Take:+0.822
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.178)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
82944 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.821...+0.823)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.821...+0.824)
Double Decision confidence: 54.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 50
Money session
pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=bBBCBBB-------------------:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 71.05% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.95% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.421
Redouble:+0.827
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.763
Redouble/Take:+0.734 (-0.029)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.237)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.759...+0.767)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.006 (+0.728...+0.740)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13

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