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position

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 5 April 2010, at 2:01 a.m.

In Response To: position (lenny)

First of all, I assume that this is a 15 pt. match (since that's what the Danes and the Cosmos played to). ATS, my OTB estimate is that the trailer's gammonless basic 4-cube takepoint is around 23% and the leader's 8-cube takepoint is around 37%. So assuming 70% efficiency, the trailer needs around 17% cubeless chances to take. I think he's got that since, for the next several rolls, he rates to have a 17/1 (or even more in some cases) shot to hit and/or escape and mostly win immediately with the cube. Adding these wins to his approx 2% chances when he does get closed out gives him enough to take, I think. Another reason to take is that the tough checker play decisions are all on Blue's side.

Should Blue recube? I doubt it. I'm not really sure how often White wins this game so maybe Blue is supposed to but I'd err on the side of caution ATS and take a roll. Only D5 and 41 lose the market. It's a hard position to analyze.

NR/T.

Messages In This Thread

• position
  lenny -- Sunday, 4 April 2010, at 10:33 p.m.
  • position
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 April 2010, at 2:01 a.m.
    • position
      lenny -- Monday, 5 April 2010, at 2:32 a.m.
      • position
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 April 2010, at 3:00 a.m.
      • position
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 April 2010, at 3:18 a.m.
        • position
          John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 April 2010, at 3:55 a.m.