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Gnubg 3-ply/2-ply rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 8:28 p.m.

In Response To: XG 3/4-ply rollouts (Petter Bengtsson)

Paul's XG 3-ply rollout has No Double correct by 0.020. Petter's XG 3-ply checker/4-ply cube rollout has ND/DT as pick'em. The Gnubg 3-ply checker, 2-ply cube rollout below has White's decision as a close Double.

The reason for that appears to be that according to Gnubg 2-ply White has 72/1296 market losing sequences, which occur when Blue rolls 5-5 or 4-4. In the rollout of White's initial cube decision, Gnubg 2-ply cube is passing after these sequences. The 2nd and 3rd rollouts below agree with those passes.

There appears to be a third market losing sequence (that is, 36/1296 more), which is when Blue rolls 3-3. The last rollout below says Blue has a 0.015 pass, but Gnubg is not passing in the first rollout, since it evaluates Double/Take at +0.9991.

I imagine that IRL if White did not double initially, many Blue players would take after bearing off three with 5-5, 4-4 or 3-3.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 6: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	57
Blue	28
Position ID: 2+4OAAAHAAAIAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5152
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8670
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1330
3.	No double	+0.8615	-0.0055
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7576 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2424 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5152 +0.8615 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0009 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7574 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2426 0.0000 0.0000 +1.0298 +0.8670 Standard error 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854343206 and quasi-random dice
Play: grandmaster 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.758 0.000 0.000 - 0.242 0.000 0.000 CL +0.515 CF +0.861
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.000 CF 0.001]
Player White owns 2-cube:
0.758 0.000 0.000 - 0.242 0.000 0.000 CL +1.030 CF +0.868
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.001 CF 0.001]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854343206 and quasi-random dice
Play: grandmaster 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 8: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	37
Blue	28
Position ID: t50BAOAAAAABAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5811
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0194	+0.0194
3.	No double	+0.7870	-0.2130
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7906 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2094 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5811 +0.7870 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0031 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7892 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2108 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1569 +1.0194 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0018 0.0033
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
864 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854343206 and quasi-random dice
Play: grandmaster 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5979
0.7989 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2011 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.0598 ( +0.0598)
3. No double +0.8247 ( -0.1753)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 8: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	41
Blue	28
Position ID: u7kBAOAAAAABAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6147
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1020	+0.1020
3.	No double	+0.8627	-0.1373
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.8074 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1926 0.0000 0.0000 +0.6147 +0.8627 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0027 Player White owns 2-cube 0.8057 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1943 0.0000 0.0000 +1.2227 +1.1020 Standard error 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0037
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854343206 and quasi-random dice
Play: grandmaster 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.6184
0.8092 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1908 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.1073 ( +0.1073)
3. No double +0.8794 ( -0.1206)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 9: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	45
Blue	28
Position ID: m7sBAOAAAAABAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5736
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0115	+0.0115
3.	No double	+0.8350	-0.1650
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7868 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2132 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5736 +0.8350 Standard error 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0025 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7863 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2137 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1451 +1.0115 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0019 0.0029
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854343206 and quasi-random dice
Play: grandmaster 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5721
0.7861 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2139 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9991
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0009)
3. No double +0.8386 ( -0.1605)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
  Paul Weaver -- Friday, 9 April 2010, at 11:14 p.m.
  • Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 9 April 2010, at 11:21 p.m.
  • Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
    Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 9 April 2010, at 11:22 p.m.
  • Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 9 April 2010, at 11:24 p.m.
    • Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
      David Rockwell -- Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 1:30 a.m.
  • Eleven-Checker-Off Cube Action
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 12:12 a.m.
  • Eleven-Checker-Off Rollout Result
    Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 11:01 p.m.
  • XG 3/4-ply rollouts
    Petter Bengtsson -- Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 10:55 a.m.
    • Gnubg 3-ply/2-ply rollout
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 8:28 p.m.