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XG: Performance rating as a yardstick?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 12 April 2010, at 1:37 a.m.

In Response To: XG: Performance rating as a yardstick? (Joe Russell)

Joe Russell wrote:

I found it interesting that with a skill differential of 3.3 and 4.8, the better player was only a 53% favorite.

Another way to get a rough feeling here is to calculate 4.8 – 3.3 = 1.5 millipoints per move, and multiply by the number of moves. I don't know how many moves there are on average in a 7-point match, but let's say 150 per person. That means that the errors are throwing away only about a fifth of a game per match. Phrased that way, perhaps it doesn't seem too surprising that the weaker player is only a slight dog.

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