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53 to play, many choices and plans

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 12 April 2010, at 4:39 a.m.

In Response To: 53 to play, many choices and plans (neilkaz)

I see four options.

1. Double hit.
2. Break anchor.
3. Hit loose with 13/5*.
4. Make the 3 point.

This far ahead in the match, I can't believe that double-hitting is correct. Maybe at GG or something, but even then it looks overextended.

Breaking anchor is the kind of move that leaps to my eye, but I know that I suffer from a bad tendency to break anchor at the wrong moment (as in double-whopper wrong!). Here it looks wrong. There's no rush to break anchor, and we have no board advantage to protect us. Breaking anchor just gives Black a chance to attack and equalize. Even if we are not hit immediately, we have to worry about safetying the blot next time. Can we really expect to bring this game home without getting hit again? I don't think so. If we do get hit then we will deeply regret having given up the anchor. We should improve our forward position first.

Hitting with 13/5* has a lot to be said for it. We currently have an advantage but it will shrink a lot if Black makes that advanced anchor. If we get hit back it's not the end of the world because we have many return shots and Black has no board. This may be the best opportunity we have to attack that checker, before Black builds up a stronger board. On the other hand a blot-hitting contest is just what Black wants since he has more checkers back and a race deficit.

Making the 3-point is safe and solid. It builds our board and leaves no shots, and unstacks the 6-point. The big disadvantage is that it leaves Black's slotted anchor unmolested. Black may make that anchor immediately, or if not, we may not get another chance to attack it. If we do get into a mutual holding game then the timing rates to go Black's way; we'll probably have to blink first.

Between making the 3-point and knocking Black off the 5-point I'm not sure. My inclination is to hit with 13/5*. It looks anti-thematic to risk a race lead when a solid alternative is available, but making the 3-point also risks something: It risks getting into a game where our race lead may actually be a disadvantage.

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