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Closed out and recubed

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 4:20 a.m.

In Response To: Closed out and recubed (neilkaz)

Trice has some guidelines for these sorts of positions. A good starting point is knowing that if we play "first 6 wins" then the player who goes first has about 59% winning chances. So suppose we fast forward a bit and imagine that Black has collapsed and opened his 6 point. Black would still probably have an advantage—it would not quite be a "first 6 wins" situation because if Black doesn't roll a 6 then he may collapse further, and if Black does roll a 6 but Yellow rolls a 6 in response then Black has not won yet. On the other hand Black could pick up a second checker.

Back to the given position, Black can absorb a couple of bad rolls before he gets to the "first 6 wins" position. And if Black rolls an immediate 6 then he may have an extra roll to try to pick up the second checker. Thus Black has a very strong advantage in the given position. On the other hand I think it's pretty clear that he's not too good, and if he does roll a 6 then he will certainly have lost his market. Thus the double is clear (at a normal match score, anyway, and I think this is pretty close to normal).

The take I'm less sure about. A gammon loss takes us to Crawford and it's almost match over. I think I would probably drop but it's a tough call.

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