| |
BGonline.org Forums
Help understanding play
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Help understanding play (MikeL)
Date: Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 7:10 p.m.
Bar/18 must be the play.
You're ahead in the race, have a weak offensive position, and your opponent has a strong one. Contact -- blot-hitters vs. blots -- favors your opponent. All you want to do is break contact as much as possible and bring your checkers home against opponent's anchor + acepoint straggler game.
You are exposed to a triple shot on either the 21 or 18 point. But the dangers are hardly equal. If you stay on the 21 point, 33/36 numbers hit, of which 7/36 numbers point on you and are deadly. If you are hit loose and fan, opponent is likely to make the point next roll. If instead you come out to the 18 point, 30/36 numbers hit, of which 8/36 numbers point but are not nearly as bad for you, since whether you are hit loose or pointed on, you have two points on which to re-enter.
Finally, your only other threes -- 5/2, 8/5, 11/8, 13/10 or 6/3 -- all make your position worse.
In sum, approximately: On the 18, 6/36 of the time you'll be in great shape, and 30/36 of the time, on average, you'll be a little worse off then you were before rolling 4-3 (opponent may have one more builder for his 4 point, but you will still be a favorite to enter immediately, will probably have some return hits, are will probably not be facing a made bar point). On the 21, about 12/36 of the time (you're missed, or hit and hit back), you'll be in nearly good to great shape, but about 17/36 of the time you'll be a dog, and 7/36 of the time you'll be nearly dead.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.