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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 19 April 2010, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: A lot of choices here...what's your pick? (Timothy Chow)

Thanks for the comments. I confess I still don't think I really understand what's going on in this position. OTB I thought that being behind in the race and with a better anchor, I should concentrate on priming, and I played 13/11 13/8. I can see in retrospect that 13/8 doesn't do much when there's already a spare on the 8-point. What surprises me, however, is that even if I change the position quite a bit to try to favor the priming play, 23/18 13/11 still does very well. Scroll down past the rollout to see a variant position (which I haven't rolled out, but which I've evaluated with GNU 4-ply just to get a feeling for what is happening). Apparently, activating that back checker is worth a lot more than I would have expected.

---

gnubg	153
tchow	171
Position ID: sM/EATCwc/AAFg Match ID: cIkKAFAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	23/18 13/11	+0.062
			0.518 0.138 0.007 - 0.482 0.140 0.006 +0.034 +0.062 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	23/16	+0.018 ( -0.043)
			0.504 0.132 0.007 - 0.496 0.140 0.005 +0.002 +0.018 0.003 0.002 0.000 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	23/18 8/6	+0.014 ( -0.048)
			0.502 0.137 0.005 - 0.498 0.143 0.006 -0.002 +0.014 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	23/21 13/8	-0.007 ( -0.068)
			0.497 0.134 0.007 - 0.503 0.145 0.006 -0.018 -0.007 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/11 13/8	-0.050 ( -0.111)
			0.491 0.140 0.006 - 0.509 0.155 0.006 -0.032 -0.050 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/6	-0.057 ( -0.118)
			0.486 0.143 0.006 - 0.514 0.152 0.006 -0.037 -0.057 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854093312 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Variant:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 5, tchow 0

Move number 12: tchow to play 25

gnubg	158
tchow	176
Position ID: sGfKATCwM/gAFg Match ID: cAkVAFAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	4	23/18 13/11	-0.068
			0.488 0.136 0.006 - 0.512 0.162 0.007
	2	4	23/21 13/8	-0.080 ( -0.013)
			0.481 0.133 0.006 - 0.519 0.152 0.007
	3	4	13/11 13/8	-0.086 ( -0.018)
			0.482 0.138 0.006 - 0.518 0.161 0.007
	4	4	23/16	-0.118 ( -0.050)
			0.473 0.125 0.005 - 0.527 0.159 0.007

Messages In This Thread

• A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 1:02 a.m.
  • A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
    mamabear -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 3:47 a.m.
  • A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
    Chase -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 3:59 a.m.
  • A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 8:24 a.m.
  • A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
    Peter G. -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 12:06 p.m.
  • A lot of choices here...what's your pick?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 18 April 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 1:13 a.m.