The vote was 7-3 in favor of splitting here. The main points have already been discussed so I'll simply recap. First of all nobody voted for the running play, why? It is most likely the 3rd best play out of the bunch (lacking a bit of stat. sig. since I did a cubeful rollout) but notice it wins just as many games as the other two plays and is the same ballpark for gammon losses. The only area it lacks in is gammons won, which pushes it down the line. I was actually on the fence as to whether I preferred running or staying on the 5 pt. I think I run if there was a 3rd checker on White's 8 pt. (before I split)
Why two down over the split? I've made my 3 pt, you have made no inner board improvement. The 3 pt. is one of the deeper points which means I'll be more anxious to attack than usual if you step up into the zone. I also have another builder aimed at my 5 pt. which gives me 9 numbers to POH. A minor detail I think chimes in is that you make my 6-5 a lot more playable.
Since my back men aren't split yet two down aims to steer this into a timing/priming battle. You create a lot of point making numbers for your 4 & 5 pts. by bringing two down and now if I decide to split I'll be under a lot of heat. Stripping the midpoint isn't pretty, but I think two down is your best route to victory.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 13/8 13/9 | -0.032 | |
| 0.9% 15.7% 49.5% 50.5% 16.8% 1.1% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0.040 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.023 ±0.009, - live cube: -0.040 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2592 games (equiv. 84762 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 24/20 13/8 | -0.053 (-0.021) | |
| 0.8% 13.7% 49.4% 50.6% 16.5% 0.7% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0.057 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.039 ±0.009, - live cube: -0.057 ±0.019. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2592 games (equiv. 82098 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 24/15 | -0.072 (-0.040) | |
| 0.7% 12.4% 49.4% 50.6% 16.8% 0.6% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: -0.056 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.055 ±0.012, - live cube: -0.056 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1620 games (equiv. 49701 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||