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Answer and comments

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 28 April 2010, at 6:58 p.m.

In Response To: Answer and comments (Timothy Chow)

It's possible that a lower-equity play will give you a higher probability of coming out ahead in the short run.

Say what? It's possible that a lower-equity play will come out ahead in the short run, but not with higher probability than the higher-equity play.

Some folks who leave 13/36 shots from the bar instead of 11/36 because their opponent is good on fives may have short- and even long-run success with that strategy, but leaving 11/36 shots is still the higher probability play.

Years ago in a chouette, one of my teammates jokingly suggested we play opening 2-1 6/5 6/4. The box said if we made that play he'd double. We made the play, he doubled, we beavered, and won 8 points all around. Despite this one very positive result, my normal play continues to be 13/11 6/5 against anyone who doesn't promise to double 6/5 6/4, and am quite sure that 13/11 6/5 has a higher probability of coming out ahead in the short run.

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