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Answer and comments

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 28 April 2010, at 8:25 p.m.

In Response To: Answer and comments (Bob Koca)

Bob Koca wrote:

Concluding that the game has a theoretical expected value of -1 would be an incorrect conclusion but to whom are you speaking when you say "you would conclude that ...".

Your objection is technically correct, but was there really any doubt about what I was trying to say? Someone who is trying to ascertain the equity of the roulette game by randomly sampling it 108 times will, with about 5.6% probability, lose every single time, and in those cases might incautiously conclude that he is 100% confident that the equity is -1 per game because that's what his computer tells him.

By the way, I take your point about my terminology of "3 strikes and you're out"; originally, I had a slightly more complicated version of the game for which that moniker made more sense, and then I decided to simplify the game. I guess I should have dropped the terminology when I changed the game.

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