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Answer and comments

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 28 April 2010, at 10:14 p.m.

In Response To: Answer and comments (poseidon)

Yes, if we shorten the "short run" to a single game, then it's easy to give examples, and maybe that suffices. But I think Daniel understands that point. What I wanted to show was that it can take a surprisingly long time for "the long run" to kick in. Constructing a good example where, for example, the lower-equity play has a higher probability of coming out ahead after ten trials will take quite a bit of work since backgammon is such a complicated game. I don't particularly feel like putting in that work because I'm not sure what it would accomplish. If I'm not able to convey my point to Daniel using much simpler examples then I don't see how a complicated example will make things any clearer.

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