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Answer and comments

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 29 April 2010, at 12:08 a.m.

In Response To: Answer and comments (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel Murphy wrote:

However, this really isn't the kind of "error" contemplated when the thread on the value of not making errors in the opening play, is it?

I can't speak for Bill; however, the two issues are related. Suppose, somewhat unrealistically, that you have a choice between spending your study time in such a way that you'll eliminate ten 0.010 opening errors in your next ten-game session, or spending that time to eliminate one 0.100 error in that session. Which do you choose? From the point of view of equity, it makes no difference. But suppose this is a chouette where you typically lose a little money and you want to maximize your probability that you will, for once, come out ahead. That's quite a different question, as we have seen.

Bill's intuition, as I understood it, was that eliminating the 0.100 error would be the better choice. I don't know what the answer is but it seems somewhat plausible to me that the 0.100 error will have a higher probability of making itself felt.

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