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Rollout: A great roll! Now what do I do with it?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 29 April 2010, at 12:20 a.m.

In Response To: A great roll! Now what do I do with it? (Timothy Chow)

Over the board, I puzzled over this one for quite a while. Initially I wanted to hit, but eventually I decided that leaving a gap in my board would be too dangerous, and I played 6/5(2) 4/3(2). GNU 2-ply scoffed at my 0.147 blunder, but for once I got the last laugh since my play ended up topping the rollout. GNU 2-ply's choice of 8/7*/5 6/5 comes in a close second.

It's surprising to me that GNU 2-ply would see so little value in filling in the board, and it makes me wonder what other errors of this kind it's making.

gnubg110


 '3X2X3X2X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

2O2X '4O '4O1X5O ' ' ' '

tchow82

Position ID: brcBIBjjeT4AAA Match ID: QYkEACAACAAA

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 6/5(2) 4/3(2) +0.711
 
0.8550.0480.000-0.1450.0050.000 +0.753 +0.711
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.002 0.002
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848796015 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 R 8/7*/5 6/5 +0.695 ( -0.016)
 
0.8130.1440.004-0.1870.0080.000 +0.765 +0.695
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.003 0.004
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848796015 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  3 R 8/7*/6 4/3(2) +0.656 ( -0.055)
 
0.8100.1050.002-0.1900.0070.000 +0.720 +0.656
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0000.000 0.002 0.003
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848796015 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  4 R 8/7*(2) 6/5(2) +0.613 ( -0.098)
 
0.7750.1630.005-0.2250.0220.001 +0.695 +0.613
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.004
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848796015 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 R 8/7*(2) 4/3(2) +0.603 ( -0.108)
 
0.7820.1250.003-0.2180.0110.000 +0.682 +0.603
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.004
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848796015 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  

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