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money game cube

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 29 April 2010, at 4:05 p.m.

In Response To: money game cube (Adam Versaw)

My initial, rather quick, reaction was that Black should double and White should pass. If White dances just a time or two, Black will be out and headed home with good outfield coverage to pick up any White checkers which must soon also venture into the outfield.

However, I recently was reviewing Robertie's Advanced Backgammon where he gives a rule of thumb that each 17-1 fly shot you get is worth about 5% wins (assuming you can contain after hitting). White has decent, though not perfect, containment chances, and my rough estimate is that he will get approximately a handful of fly shots. Those add up quickly, so now I'm wondering if White can eek out a take.

Over the board, I'd pass, since it's difficult to estimate how many gammons White loses (or wins), meaning my analysis could be way off, but I won't be surprised at all if White is supposed to take.

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