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Rollout: Run or hide?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 30 April 2010, at 11:17 p.m.

In Response To: Run or hide? (Timothy Chow)

As MCG points out, if Blue's choice were between playing bar/23 without playing the 5, and playing bar/18, then the decision would be closer and bar/18 might even be better. This may come as a surprise to those who think that stepping out into a triple shot when outboarded and with another blot dangling is suicidal. But being ahead in the race, Blue wants to get that checker around if possible.

However, Blue has to play the 5, of course, and 13/8 is a perfectly good and constructive 5. I haven't rolled it out, but if one of the spares on the midpoint were already on the 8 point, then it looks like the decision would be quite a bit closer, though 13/8 would still get the nod.

gnubg	154
tchow	141
Position ID: bGYLECPizuADQA Match ID: UYkKAEAAMAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/23 13/8	+0.108
			0.482 0.122 0.005 - 0.518 0.177 0.005 -0.090 +0.108 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854977562 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/18	-0.008 ( -0.117)
			0.457 0.103 0.006 - 0.543 0.215 0.006 -0.198 -0.008 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854977562 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Run or hide?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 29 April 2010, at 11:52 p.m.
  • Run or hide?
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 12:25 a.m.
    • Run or hide?
      Chase -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 3:23 a.m.
      • Run or hide?
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 6:30 a.m.
  • Run or hide?
    Bill Riles -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 2:41 a.m.
    • Run or hide?
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Run or hide?
    Seth -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 3:33 a.m.
  • Run or hide?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 6:44 a.m.
    • Run or hide?
      neilkaz -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 1:16 p.m.
  • Run or hide?
    johnk -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 6:50 p.m.
  • Rollout: Run or hide?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 30 April 2010, at 11:17 p.m.
    • Interesting variant
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 3:55 a.m.