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Partial spoiler

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 4 May 2010, at 10:35 p.m.

In Response To: Partial spoiler (W Womack)

That is the correct way to calculate the answer, but to me that doesn't give me that much insight into why the answer is what it is. Most people are surprised at how small the answer is. My point is that if you have, say, 25 people, then there are 300 pairs of people you could form, and any one of those 300 pairs could have the same birthday. If I get 300 shots at something that has probability 1/365, it should not be too surprising that my chances of success are in the ballpark of 50%.

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