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BGonline.org Forums
Help understanding this cube action
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Help understanding this cube action (nixo)
Date: Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 6:09 p.m.
Let's note the key characteristics of the position first:
- The score is -4-5 meaning if you recube your opponent will autorecube and the game will be for the match. Your gammons which make up a significant portion of your wins for you when things go right and by recubing they will be nullified.
- Having noted that a good portion of your wins are gammons at this score you should realize your gammon value is a lot higher than it would be for money since a gammon puts you out exactly. Whether or not you know the exact gammon value isn't particularly important (it's .8) as long as you realize it's a lot higher than it is for money.
- Your opponent's take point is easy to figure out. He passes and he trails -2-5 which gives him 25% match equity.
I think that's the most pertinent information. With your opponent's solid forward structure and the fact that you still have a lot of work to do before he's blown off the board you hopefully see this is a take of monstrous proportions should you choose to cube. One of the real questions you need to ask yourself is "how often does White win from here?" If you can answer that accurately in this position with all the other information we've included you should be able to arrive at the correct decision.
This is one of those positions I bet it will be hard to arrive at a point of proper recube. If things go well, you make the 3pt, opponent dances, you escape a back man, you'll wind up being too good. If however your opponent enters or you don't escape, you won't be nearly good enough. Look for this position to play out as a ND/T or a TG/P rarely being able to find a proper D/T.
Stick
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