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[2]3a4a cube action

Posted By: Chase
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 1:10 a.m.

In Response To: [2]3a4a cube action (Chase)

I blundered by not cubing here. Black's take point on a 2-cube is only about 19%. I wasn't sure if he had that or not, but I figured I win a goodly amount of gammons, so I could win the match here. On the other hand if I cube and he takes, my gammons are worthless. A difficult one for me to get my head around.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
4 point match
pip: 95
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=aB-BBCD-----b----bAdbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:4:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.65% (G: 24.25% B: 0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.35% (G: 3.44% B: 0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.32% (G: 23.97% B: 0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.68% (G: 3.20% B: 0.13%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.745
Redouble:+0.949
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.853 (-0.095)
Redouble/Take:+0.949
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.051)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50147414
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.850...+0.857)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.006 (+0.943...+0.954)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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