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Is XG confidence confident?

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 2:13 a.m.

In Response To: Is XG confidence confident? (mtuhtan)

mtuhtan , could you email me the save position (or match)? There is always the odd chance a RO would be completely outside range. If i know the seed you use i can check deeper into it (however, if you used version 1.13 i wont be able to reproduce the rollout)

I just run it using default seed (1) and version 1.14 and I get

  • 1296 games: 0.122 +/- 0.019
  • 2592 games: 0.127 +/- 0.013
  • 5184 games: 0.120 +/- 0.010

If anyone is interested (let's say Tim for instance ;-) ) here is the brekadown by game for the 1st 1296 game rolled: www.extremegammon.com/misc/31P-65R-51.txt

When i graph it again the normal distribution it does not look to me that the normal distribution is a bad hypothesis: www.extremegammon.com/misc/31P-65R-51.png (using a 0.020 category interval)

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