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Is XG confidence confident?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 8:18 a.m.

In Response To: Is XG confidence confident? (Daniel Murphy)


I don't see the Gnu confidence interval numbers in output files (where are they hiding?)...

Multiply the Standard Deviation by 1.96.

If a play's equity is 0.0000 and the SD is 0.0100, the 95% confidence interval is 0.0000 ± 0.0196.


Sorry to be stupid, but below is a typical file output, such as someone might post here (except the formatting has been degraded in the translation of my posting it). Where is the SD information?

1. Rollout 8/3 6/3 Eq.: -0.2018

45.17 13.57 0.71 - 54.83 17.04 0.82 CL -0.1324 CF -0.2018

[ 0.08 0.08 0.03 - 0.08 0.09 0.03 CL 0.0021 CF 0.0053]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1028535104 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 24/21 13/8 Eq.: -0.2380 ( -0.0363)

44.82 11.75 0.58 - 55.18 17.23 0.71 CL -0.1596 CF -0.2380

[ 0.09 0.08 0.02 - 0.09 0.10 0.03 CL 0.0023 CF 0.0059]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1028535104 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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