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BGonline.org Forums
Its not easy to enter.
Posted By: W Womack In Response To: Its not easy to enter. (Greg)
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 9:45 p.m.
Unless you collect a huge amount of data in an objective manner (e.g. capturing a log of all rolls) it is virtually impossible to determine if the dice are doing something they should not be. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, even with "correct" dice events that are low probability are going to occur. For example in our club chouette the other night the crew was trying to close out the box with only our ace point open. The box rolled 7 aces in a roll either sending back the loose hit or a couple of times coming up with 61 to spring the lone checker. Rolling an ace 7 times in a row has a very low probability--but it happened--and that was with "real" dice.
The other factor is that you tend to remember the times that the rolls go against you--like your opp entering against a 4 or 5 point board on the first roll a couple of times in the game or you dancing on a two point board. When I am in the midst of an online match often I find myself shaking my head over this, thinking my opp is very lucky, but in most cases when I analyze the match in XG afterward I find that the % of entering from the bar is usually pretty close to the expected value, so it is more of psychological factor.
Finally keep in mind that Backgammon NJ has a feature where you can review the next 100 rolls generated by the PRNG, and if you check you will find that those are the rolls that come up. Unless the software is psychic there is no way that it could know that in 15, or 20, or 50 rolls it would need a certain combination of numbers to enter against your 4 point board.
And for the record, the only connection I have with Backgammon NJ is the version of the app I purchased for my IPod.
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