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Using hyperpips to determine winning %

Posted By: Chase
Date: Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 2:17 p.m.

This position is from game 3 of a match at Gammon Village between Neil and Eli Roymi. I'm more interested in the application of Danny Kleinman's hyperpips than I am this specific position. Kleinman classifies this as a 5, 15 position, meaning 5 points are closed with a strength rating of 15 (gotten by adding the numbers of the points covered: 5+4+3+2+1=15). According to Kleinman's reckoning, a 5, 15 position costs White an additional 16.36 pips on average. That gives an adjusted pip count of 72 to 88, giving Black an effective 22% racing lead. If there were no contact, I'd estimate that gives White about 13% winning chances. XG says White wins 22% from here. Does White really pick up an extra 9% wins from hitting? Or is hyperpipping not that helpful? Or am I hyperpipping wrong? Or am I missing something? And how would you think yourself through this type of position?

Thanks.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 72
13 point match
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCCCaC-----a-------bcccbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14

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