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BGonline.org Forums
Using hyperpips to determine winning %
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Using hyperpips to determine winning % (Chase)
Date: Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 8:05 p.m.
There are several ways to see why the greater variability helps the trailer. Suppose you have a choice of two positions with equal effective pipcounts. If you roll average or below average you will very likely lose (unless opponent rolls extremely poorly). Rolling poorly in the greater variability position might cost you 2 rolls instead of perhaps only 1 in the low variability position but so what. You will very likely lose both and how much you lose by does not matter. But if you roll well the potential gain is greater in the higher variability position and that could make the difference between a win and a loss.
An experiment you can play around with yourself to determine how much a difference the variability can make is to find an n-roll position and a pips race position that have equal Trice counts. Then give your opponent a position so that he is on roll against your pips race position with a significant advantage. Now change your position to the n-rolls position. Despite having the same Trice count you are in a worse position. There is less variability in the n-rolls position and you will find that it does worse. Note that gnu gives EPC and allows you to do a one sided rollout to find EPC.
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