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what am i missing?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 12:11 p.m.

In Response To: what am i missing? (DanielP)

At 3a3a, the take point is normally about 25% with recube vig. Gammons are worth about the same as for standard play (.5). I guess Blue wins about 23% gammons to White's 8%, so 15% net gammons. 25 plus half the net gammons would be 32.5%. I guess Blue wins 39% from here, so a clear take. Blue does have some market losers -- 11 33 44 31, plus some loose hits followed by a poor response. White is also likely to leave additional shots later. I won't be surprised if that's enough to add up to a correct cube, but I think I'd wait a turn.

Messages In This Thread

• what am i missing?
  DanielP -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 11:20 a.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 12:11 p.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 3:09 p.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
    • what am i missing?
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 6:49 p.m.
      • what am i missing?
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 6:55 p.m.
    • what am i missing?
      Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:11 p.m.
      • what am i missing?
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
        • what am i missing?
          Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:24 p.m.