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what am i missing?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 5:45 p.m.

In Response To: what am i missing? (DanielP)

Match play as you know can differ greatly from money play. As others have already mentioned but not specified or been correct with their figures, your opponent's raw take point at this score is higher than normal money scores. You should know his (and your) take point:

  • Double/Pass would put your opponent at -3 -2 or 40% match equity
  • Double/Take/Lose would put him at -3 -1 or 25% match equity
  • Doublt/Take/Win would put him at -1 -3 or 75% match equity

You are risking 15% (40-25) to gain 35% (75-40). This is much worse than the 3-1 odds one gets normally for money and increases the raw take point to 30%.

The gammon value on a 2 cube at -3 -3 is the same as for money, 0.5. So in this position your opponent would need 30% + half of the difference in your gammon wins. Let's assume for our example that you win 25% gammons and he wins 8% gammons. That would mean he needs half of 25-8, or 8.5% added on to the raw take point of 30%. 30% + 8.5% is your opponent's gammon adjusted take point for this position, 38.5%. (not including recube vig)

You do have recube vig at -3 -3 but it's about the same as for money. Given all the numbers garbage I've supplied I think you have a pretty big cube at the score. Your opponent still has a clear take though.

Stick

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